| 词条 | Goodhart's law |
| 释义 |
FormulationGoodhart first advanced the idea in a 1975 article, which later became used popularly to criticize the United Kingdom government of Margaret Thatcher for trying to conduct monetary policy on the basis of targets for broad and narrow money.{{clarify|Layman's definition needed for "broad and narrow money"|date=March 2017}} His original formulation was:[3]
However, some parts of the concept considerably pre-dates Goodhart's statement in 1975.[4] Shortly after Goodhart's publication, others suggested closely related ideas, including Campbell's law (1976) and the Lucas critique (1976). As applied in economics, the law is implicit in the economic idea of rational expectations, a theory in economics that states that entities who are aware of a system of rewards and punishments will optimize their actions within said system to achieve their desired results. E.g. employees whose performance in a company is measured by some known quantitative measure (cars sold in a month etc.) will attempt to optimize with respect to that measure regardless of whether or not their behavior is profit-maximizing. While it originated in the context of market responses, the law has profound implications for the selection of high-level targets in organizations.[5] Jón Danı́elsson quotes the law as "Any statistical relationship will break down when used for policy purposes" and suggests a corollary to the law for use in financial risk modelling: "A risk model breaks down when used for regulatory purposes."[6] Mario Biagioli has related the concept to consequences of using citation impact measures to estimate the importance of scientific publications:[7]
See also
References1. ^{{cite journal |last=Strathern |first=Marilyn |title=Improving Ratings |journal=Audit in the British University System European Review 5 |pages=305–321 |url=http://conferences.asucollegeoflaw.com/sciencepublicsphere/files/2014/02/Strathern1997-2.pdf}} 2. ^{{cite arxiv |last1=Manheim |first1=David |last2=Garrabrant |first2=Scott |title=Categorizing Variants of Goodhart's Law |eprint=1803.04585 |class=cs.AI |year=2018}} 3. ^{{cite journal |last=Goodhart |first=Charles |year=1981 |title=Problems of Monetary Management: The U.K. Experience |journal=Anthony S. Courakis (ed.), Inflation, Depression, and Economic Policy in the West |pages=111–146}} 4. ^"Overpowered Metrics Eat Underspecified Goals". Ribbonfarm. Accessed 26 January 2017. 5. ^{{cite book | last = Goodhart | first = C. A. E. | authorlink = | chapter = Problems of Monetary Management: The U.K. Experience | title = Papers in Monetary Economics | volume = I | pages = | publisher = Reserve Bank of Australia | location = | year = 1975 | doi = | id = | accessdate = }} 6. ^{{cite journal |last=Daníelsson |first=Jón |date=July 2002 |title=The Emperor Has No Clothes: Limits to Risk Modelling |journal=Journal of Banking & Finance |volume=26 |issue=7 |pages=1273–1296 |doi=10.1016/S0378-4266(02)00263-7 |subscription=y|citeseerx=10.1.1.27.3392 }} 7. ^{{cite journal |last=Biagioli |first=Mario |date=12 July 2016 |title=Watch out for cheats in citation game |journal=Nature |volume=535 |issue=7611 |page=201 |doi=10.1038/535201a |pmid=27411599 |bibcode=2016Natur.535..201B }} Further reading
4 : Economics of regulation|Adages|Economics laws|1975 in economics |
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